What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 27% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Mars CA rail on Kalshi

If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, Blue Origin, CBS, CNN, ESA, Fox News, MSNBC, NASA, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Roscosmos, Space, SpaceX, the Associated Press, the California Department of Transportation, the California High-Speed Rail Authority, the Chinese National Space Administration, the Federal Railroad Administration, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

51% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
26¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.59	27.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? · Before 2050	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	17,274	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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