What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.05.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Thomas Massie announces presidential run by...? on Kalshi

If Thomas Massie has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

83% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	124	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	0	Oct 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	May 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	0	Jun 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	0	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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