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Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 78.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 78.5 ? · Above 78.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,529 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 69 ? · Above 69 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,991 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 65 ? · Above 65 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,199 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 45.5 ? · Above 45.5 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 960 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 58.5 ? · Above 58.5 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 958 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 52 ? · Above 52 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 600 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 61.5 ? · Above 61.5 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 532 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 55 ? · Above 55 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 200 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.