What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 73¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 74% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 73%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Jim McDonnell announces departure as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department? on Kalshi

If Jim McDonnell leaves (or announces he will leave) as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Los Angeles City Clerk, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Board of Police Commissioners, Bloomberg News, the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, CNN, Los Angeles Police Department, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

73%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

55% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
73¢ (now)	1.4¢	$0.95	74.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Jim McDonnell announce their departure as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jim McDonnell announce their departure as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	55%	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Jim McDonnell announce their departure as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jim McDonnell announce their departure as Chief of Police of the Los Angeles Police Department before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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