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Measles cases on Kalshi
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CDC.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 79¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.73 | 80.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 6000 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 316,659 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 8000 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 191,896 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 10000 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 189,614 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 7000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 7000 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 12,171 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 9000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 9000 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,020 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026? · Above 5000 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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