What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 98¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.09.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 98% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 98%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

WHEN WILL DUNE 3 RELEASE on Kalshi

If Dune: Part Three has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, Entertainment Weekly, streaming platform for media in geography, The Source Agencies are, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, in hierarchical order, The Hollywood Reporter, official website or verified social media account of the media distributor in geography, Reuters, Axios, IMDb, Spotify, Netflix, Variety, CNN, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, CBS, film studios responsible for the production of media.

Market says (typical open contract)

98%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
97¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.11	97.2%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Dune: Part Three be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	10,971	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Dune: Part Three be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,621	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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