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Meta Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Meta Platforms Inc. reports Above 8% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 65000 Headcount in 2026? · Above 65000 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 15,008 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in 2026? · Above 77000 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 12,880 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 71000 Headcount in 2026? · Above 71000 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 12,577 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 68000 Headcount in 2026? · Above 68000 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 10,570 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 74000 Headcount in 2026? · Above 74000 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2,630 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.72 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.72 billion | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,474 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 14% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 14% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,126 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.68 billion | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,042 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 16% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 16% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,012 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.74 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.74 billion | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 770 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.7 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.7 billion | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 684 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.66 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.66 billion | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 652 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.76 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.76 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 570 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 12% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 12% | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 551 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.78 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.78 billion | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 394 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 20% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 20% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 313 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 18% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 18% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 208 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.8 billion family daily active people in 2026? · Above 3.8 billion | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 173 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 22% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 22% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 83 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 8% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 8% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 50 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 10% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 10% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Apr 28, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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