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Michelin Star Gains on Kalshi
If Saga has gained Michelin stars in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Michelin.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bungalow earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · Bungalow | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 3,158 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Le Coucou earn two or more stars in 2026? · Le Coucou | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 888 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tatiana earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · Tatiana | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 871 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Frevo earn two or more stars in 2026? · Frevo | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 700 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Yoshino earn two or more stars in 2026? · Yoshino | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 669 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Torrisi earn two or more stars in 2026? · Torrisi | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 452 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Le Chêne earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · Le Chêne | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 395 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Maison Passerelle earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · Maison Passerelle | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 154 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Aska earn three stars in 2026? · Aska | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 91 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HWARO earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · HWARO | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 80 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kabawa earn its first Michelin star in 2026? · Kabawa | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 52 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Atera earn three stars in 2026? · Atera | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 15 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Saga earn three stars in 2026? · Saga | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will César earn three stars in 2026? · César | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Chef's Table at Brooklyn Fare earn three stars in 2026? · Chef's Table at Brooklyn Fare | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Atomix earn three stars in 2026? · Atomix | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Semma earn two or more stars in 2026? · Semma | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Four Horsemen earn two or more stars in 2026? · The Four Horsemen | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 14, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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