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National League Comeback Player of the Year on Kalshi
If Zack Wheeler wins the Pro Baseball National League Comeback Player of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY? · Zack Wheeler | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19,965 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sandy Alcantara win NL CPOTY? · Sandy Alcantara | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,559 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY? · Michael Harris II | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,654 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY? · Brandon Woodruff | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,432 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tanner Scott win NL CPOTY? · Tanner Scott | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,275 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oneil Cruz win NL CPOTY? · Oneil Cruz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,746 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY? · Ezequiel Tovar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,037 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY? · Shota Imanaga | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 410 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY? · Tie/Co-Winners | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 209 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY? · Sean Manaea | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 156 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Porter Hodge win NL CPOTY? · Porter Hodge | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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