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MLS Cup champion on Kalshi
If Vancouver is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miami win the MLS Cup? · Miami | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 432,876 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nashville win the MLS Cup? · Nashville | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 295,871 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vancouver win the MLS Cup? · Vancouver | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 217,582 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup? · Los Angeles F | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 181,472 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seattle win the MLS Cup? · Seattle | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 180,183 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia win the MLS Cup? · Philadelphia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 163,922 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Louis win the MLS Cup? · Saint Louis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 138,519 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Jose win the MLS Cup? · San Jose | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 121,016 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Portland win the MLS Cup? · Portland | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 97,430 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago win the MLS Cup? · Chicago | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 93,164 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Orlando win the MLS Cup? · Orlando | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 89,057 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win the MLS Cup? · Houston | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 79,363 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Columbus win the MLS Cup? · Columbus | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 72,226 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles G win the MLS Cup? · Los Angeles G | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 58,879 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win the MLS Cup? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 57,329 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Diego win the MLS Cup? · San Diego | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53,995 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Salt Lake win the MLS Cup? · Salt Lake | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52,295 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New England win the MLS Cup? · New England | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 49,374 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlotte win the MLS Cup? · Charlotte | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 45,174 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado win the MLS Cup? · Colorado | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 43,291 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas win the MLS Cup? · Dallas | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 43,038 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati win the MLS Cup? · Cincinnati | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 38,463 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York RB win the MLS Cup? · New York RB | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,386 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Austin win the MLS Cup? · Austin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,691 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York City win the MLS Cup? · New York City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 22,889 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta win the MLS Cup? · Atlanta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,375 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DC win the MLS Cup? · DC | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,092 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Toronto win the MLS Cup? · Toronto | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,088 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win the MLS Cup? · Kansas City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,610 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Montréal win the MLS Cup? · Montréal | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,258 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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