What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Moto GP World Champion on Kalshi

If Toprak Razgatlioglu wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, MotoGP, Fox Sports.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Marc Marquez	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	37,603	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Jorge Martin be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Jorge Martin	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	29,171	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Marco Bezzecchi	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	18,633	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Ai Ogura be the MotoGP World Champion? · Ai Ogura	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	6,714	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Fabio Di Giannantonio be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Fabio Di Giannantonio	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,762	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion? · Francesco Bagnaia	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,539	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Alex Marquez be the MotoGP World Champion? · Alex Marquez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,442	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Pedro Acosta be the MotoGP World Champion? · Pedro Acosta	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,790	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Raul Fernandez be the MotoGP World Champion? · Raul Fernandez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	647	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Fabio Quartararo be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Fabio Quartararo	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	359	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Fermin Aldeguer be the MotoGP World Champion? · Fermin Aldeguer	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	203	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Maverick Vinales be the MotoGP World Champion? · Maverick Vinales	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	100	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Alex Rins be the MotoGP World Champion? · Alex Rins	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	56	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Jack Miller be the MotoGP World Champion? · Jack Miller	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	54	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Toprak Razgatlioglu be the MotoGP World Champion? · Toprak Razgatlioglu	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Luca Marini be the MotoGP World Champion? · Luca Marini	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Johann Zarco be the MotoGP World Champion? · Johann Zarco	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Joan Mir be the MotoGP World Champion? · Joan Mir	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Franco Morbidelli be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Franco Morbidelli	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Enea Bastianini be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion? · Enea Bastianini	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Diogo Moreira be the MotoGP World Champion? · Diogo Moreira	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Brad Binder be the MotoGP World Champion? · Brad Binder	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 14, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.