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Moto GP Race on Kalshi
If Pedro Acosta finishes first in the main race originally scheduled for Nov 15, 2026 at the 2026 Repsol Grand Prix of Portugal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MotoGP.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Marquez wins · Marc Marquez | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 286 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Marco Bezzecchi wins · Marco Bezzecchi | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 217 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Pedro Acosta wins · Pedro Acosta | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Maverick Vinales wins · Maverick Vinales | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Luca Marini wins · Luca Marini | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Johann Zarco wins · Johann Zarco | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Joan Mir wins · Joan Mir | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Jack Miller wins · Jack Miller | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Iker Lecuona wins · Iker Lecuona | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Franco Morbidelli wins · Franco Morbidelli | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Francesco Bagnaia wins · Francesco Bagnaia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Fabio Quartararo wins · Fabio Quartararo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Fabio Di Giannantonio wins · Fabio Di Giannantonio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Enea Bastianini wins · Enea Bastianini | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Diogo Moreira wins · Diogo Moreira | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Brad Binder wins · Brad Binder | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Augusto Fernandez wins · Augusto Fernandez | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Alex Rins wins · Alex Rins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Alex Marquez wins · Alex Marquez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
| Ai Ogura wins · Ai Ogura | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 22, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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