What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 45¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.93.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 45%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

when will movie release on Kalshi

If next James Bond has been publicly released in the USA through official channels before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, Entertainment Weekly, streaming platform for media in geography, The Source Agencies are, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, in hierarchical order, The Hollywood Reporter, official website or verified social media account of the media distributor in geography, Reuters, Axios, IMDb, Spotify, Netflix, Variety, CNN, The New York Times, NBC, Politico, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, CBS, film studios responsible for the production of media.

Market says (typical open contract)

45%

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
45¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.93	46.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will A full-length film adaptation of The Odyssey made using Grok Imagine and officially released by Grok or an official account controlled by Elon Musk, pursuant to Elon Musk’s July 22, 2026 announcement be released before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	17,679	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the next James Bond be released in the USA before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	5,924	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the next James Bond be released in the USA before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	73%	1,069	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the next James Bond be released in the USA before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	919	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Season 2 be released None before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	327	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jan 1, 2030? · Before 2030	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	187	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jan 1, 2028? · Before 2028	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	132	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jul 1, 2029? · Before July 2029	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	61	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jul 1, 2028? · Before July 2028	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	44	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Season 2 be released None before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	43	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Season 2 be released None before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	83¢	83%	1.0¢	—	34%	42	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the next James Bond be released in the USA before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	32	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jan 1, 2029? · Before 2029	61¢	61%	1.7¢	—	78%	2	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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