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MSCI USA quarterly additions on Kalshi
If X-energy is announced to be or is officially added to MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MSCI.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
31% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US Foods be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · US Foods | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,291 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Woodward be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Woodward | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 991 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Royal Gold be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Royal Gold | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 905 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Moderna be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Moderna | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 802 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tenet Healthcare be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Tenet Healthcare | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 776 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fervo Energy be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Fervo Energy | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 97 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Oklo be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Oklo | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 32 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will IonQ be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · IonQ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will X-energy be added to the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · X-energy | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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