Markets › Kalshi › Financials
MSCI USA quarterly removals on Kalshi
If Watsco is announced to be or is officially removed from MSCI USA Index during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MSCI.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
53% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 74¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.91 | 75.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · The Carlyle Group | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,005 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fidelity National Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Fidelity National Financial | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 920 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · DICK'S Sporting Goods | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 830 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Deckers Outdoor | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 744 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Cooper Companies be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · The Cooper Companies | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 737 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Watsco be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Watsco | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 737 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · McCormick & Company (non-voting common shares) | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 406 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will United Airlines Holdings be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · United Airlines Holdings | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 21 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rollins be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Rollins | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hyatt Hotels (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Hyatt Hotels (Class A) | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Circle Internet Group (Class A) be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Circle Internet Group (Class A) | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Corebridge Financial be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026? · Corebridge Financial | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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