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Microsoft Mention on Kalshi
If Satya Nadella says Sovereign Cloud as part of Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Microsoft Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Azure | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 805 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Cybersecurity | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 459 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Foundry | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 297 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Autopilot | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 213 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Sovereign Cloud | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 188 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Copilot | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 168 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Event does not qualify | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 99 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Cowork | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 96 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · OpenAI | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 79 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · NVIDIA | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 65 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Anthropic / Claude | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 50 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Scout | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 35 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Mistral | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 3 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · GitHub | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Frontier | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST)? · Agent 365 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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