PredictMeNot
Theme

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will a court block Montana's I-194 corporate political spending ban? on Kalshi

If any federal or state court issues a temporary restraining order or a preliminary or permanent injunction barring enforcement of Montana Initiative 194 (2026), or declares it invalid or unenforceable, in whole or in part in Frontier Institute v. Knudsen (D. Mont.), any appeal of that action, or any other action challenging Initiative 194's validity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CourtListener, Montana Courts, Law360, PACER, Justia, Bloomberg Law, the Associated Press, Reuters, Courthouse News Service.

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
51¢ (now)1.7¢$1.7252.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a court block Montana's I-194 spending ban in 2026? · Before Jan 1, 202750¢50%1.7¢—99%0Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.