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Musk challengers on Kalshi
If the number of non-incumbent candidates endorsed by Elon Musk after Issuance who are elected to federal office in elections held before Nov 4, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Senate, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, Ballotpedia, United States House of Representatives, Federal Election Commission, New York Times, CBS, The Washington Post, NBC, Energy Information Administration, Axios, CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg News, official campaign websites of candidates, the Associated Press, Politico, Elon Musk’s X account.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 5 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 10,721 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 15 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,264 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 1 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,613 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 10 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,738 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 100 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,212 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 3 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,191 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 75 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,097 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 25 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 306 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 20 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 238 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026? · At least 50 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 57 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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