Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Northern Nalšia by-election winner on Kalshi
If Viktoras Voroninas wins the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gintautas Kindurys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Gintautas Kindurys | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,460 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ignotas Adomavičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Ignotas Adomavičius | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 314 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dalia Štraupaitė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Dalia Štraupaitė | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 214 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Giedrius Dainys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Giedrius Dainys | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 203 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Antanas Šakalys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Antanas Šakalys | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 166 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladislavas Kondratovičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Vladislavas Kondratovičius | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 51 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrejus Šildiajevas win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Andrejus Šildiajevas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mėta Paulauskė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Mėta Paulauskė | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Viktoras Voroninas win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Viktoras Voroninas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nikolajus Lebedevičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Nikolajus Lebedevičius | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maksimas Paukštė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election? · Maksimas Paukštė | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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