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Nasdaq yearly range on Kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 18,999.99 or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,339,094 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 33,000.01 or above | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 562,583 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29500 and 29999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 29,500 to 29,999.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 228,489 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30500 and 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 30,500 to 30,999.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 219,219 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32500 and 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 32,500 to 33,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 211,815 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 32,000 to 32,499.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 192,830 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25500 and 25999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 25,500 to 25,999.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 191,674 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30000 and 30499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 30,000 to 30,499.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 188,498 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31000 and 31499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 31,000 to 31,499.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 187,516 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 31,500 to 31,999.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 175,325 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29000 and 29499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 29,000 to 29,499.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 175,197 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25000 and 25499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 25,000 to 25,499.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 167,031 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26000 and 26499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 26,000 to 26,499.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 158,565 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 24500 and 24999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 24,500 to 24,999.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 157,192 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,500 to 28,999.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 144,953 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26500 and 26999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 26,500 to 26,999.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 144,434 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 23000 and 23499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 23,000 to 23,499.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 143,131 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,000 to 28,499.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 142,442 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 24000 and 24499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 24,000 to 24,499.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 140,308 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27500 and 27999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,500 to 27,999.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 136,946 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,000 to 27,499.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 135,374 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 21000 and 21499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 21,000 to 21,499.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 132,564 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 20500 and 20999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 20,500 to 20,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 132,079 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 22500 and 22999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,500 to 22,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 131,941 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 22000 and 22499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 22,000 to 22,499.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 126,100 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 19000 and 19499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 19,000 to 19,499.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 122,921 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 23500 and 23999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 23,500 to 23,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 121,922 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 21500 and 21999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 21,500 to 21,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 118,926 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 19500 and 19999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 19,500 to 19,999.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 117,818 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 20000 and 20499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 20,000 to 20,499.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 80,476 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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