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national book awards on Kalshi
If 'When Tomorrow Burns' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Book Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 55 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Disappearing Act win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Disappearing Act | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,010 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Bramble | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,401 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,152 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,922 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Disappearers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Disappearers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,801 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,733 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,482 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,482 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,482 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,460 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Mother Tongue | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,396 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,332 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,323 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,312 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pure Men win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Pure Men | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,047 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Promise/Threat win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Promise/Threat | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 687 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The School of Night win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · The School of Night | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 655 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Now I Surrender win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Now I Surrender | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 615 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eden at Dawn win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Eden at Dawn | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 615 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will To the East of the East win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · To the East of the East | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 545 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will My Dreadful Body win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · My Dreadful Body | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 545 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Night of a Thousand Hells win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Night of a Thousand Hells | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 455 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Your Presence Is a Danger to Your Life: Voices of Survival and Witness in Gaza win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Your Presence Is a Danger to Your Life: Voices of Survival and Witness in Gaza | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 445 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 445 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Centroeuropa win Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Centroeuropa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 445 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Horses win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Horses | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 415 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Bronze Arms win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Bronze Arms | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 414 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will We win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · We | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 385 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JOAN win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · JOAN | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 385 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Red Ants win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Red Ants | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 283 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hide win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Hide | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 253 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Python’s Kiss win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Python’s Kiss | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 252 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Renovation win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Renovation | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 222 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Passengers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards? · Passengers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 222 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tree of Knowledge win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Tree of Knowledge | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 215 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 215 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Still House in the Desert: An eco-contemplation | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 215 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? · Exhibit G: Poems, Essays, and Photographs of Gaza | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 215 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 185 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Moon Without Stars win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards? · The Moon Without Stars | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 100 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 55 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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