Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Natural Gas Daily on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 3.395 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - NATGAS.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 110 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.075 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.075 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 455 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.080 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.080 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 340 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.040 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.040 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 253 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.025 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.025 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 226 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.005 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.005 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.970 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.970 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.950 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.950 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.910 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.910 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.855 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.855 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 210 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.295 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.295 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 198 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.090 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.090 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 140 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.360 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.360 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 129 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.345 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.345 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 107 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.065 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.065 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 97 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.105 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.105 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 90 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.070 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.070 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 90 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.085 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.085 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 80 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.110 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.110 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 65 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.115 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.115 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 60 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.100 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.100 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 51 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.095 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.095 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 50 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.130 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.130 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 30 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.120 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.120 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 30 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.190 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.190 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 26 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.160 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.160 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.145 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.145 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.125 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.125 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.045 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.045 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 20 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.940 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.940 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 20 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.890 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.890 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.875 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.875 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.060 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.060 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.055 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.055 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.050 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.050 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.035 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.035 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.030 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.030 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.020 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.020 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.015 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.015 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.010 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.010 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 110 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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