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NBA 2nd Half Total on Kalshi
If over 98.5 total points are scored in the 2nd half (including overtime) of the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Half: Over 110.5 points scored · Over 110.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 9,605 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 112.5 points scored · Over 112.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,295 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 104.5 points scored · Over 104.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,226 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 108.5 points scored · Over 108.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,223 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 114.5 points scored · Over 114.5 points | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 765 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 98.5 points scored · Over 98.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 241 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 118.5 points scored · Over 118.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 122 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 126.5 points scored · Over 126.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 14 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 130.5 points scored · Over 130.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 96.5 points scored · Over 96.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 94.5 points scored · Over 94.5 points | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 128.5 points scored · Over 128.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 124.5 points scored · Over 124.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 122.5 points scored · Over 122.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 120.5 points scored · Over 120.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 116.5 points scored · Over 116.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 106.5 points scored · Over 106.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 102.5 points scored · Over 102.5 points | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 100.5 points scored · Over 100.5 points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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