Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Threes Protected on Kalshi
If VJ Edgecombe records 5+ made three-pointers in the Boston vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 84 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry: 5+ threes · Stephen Curry: 5+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,637 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 5+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 5+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 809 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 3+ threes · Stephen Curry: 3+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 642 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 6+ threes · Stephen Curry: 6+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 557 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 4+ threes · Karlo Matković: 4+ | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 454 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 359 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Georges Niang: 2+ threes · Georges Niang: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 354 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 3+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 308 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 7+ threes · Stephen Curry: 7+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 265 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 2+ threes · Karlo Matković: 2+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 251 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 3+ threes · Karlo Matković: 3+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 184 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 175 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: 2+ threes · Jeremiah Fears: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 172 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 4+ threes · Stephen Curry: 4+ | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 99 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 2+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 2+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 93 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 5+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 5+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 58 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 4+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 4+ | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 34 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 1+ threes · Karlo Matković: 1+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 7 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Herbert Jones: 1+ threes · Herbert Jones: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: 1+ threes · Jeremiah Fears: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 1+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 1+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 5+ threes · VJ Edgecombe: 5+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 2+ threes · VJ Edgecombe: 2+ | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 3+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 2+ threes · Tyrese Maxey: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 4+ threes · LeBron James: 4+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 2+ threes · LeBron James: 2+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| LeBron James: 1+ threes · LeBron James: 1+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 5+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 5+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 2+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 2+ | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 5+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 5+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 4+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 4+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 3+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 3+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 2+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 2+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Payton Pritchard: 1+ threes · Payton Pritchard: 1+ | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 5+ threes · Paul George: 5+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 4+ threes · Paul George: 4+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 3+ threes · Paul George: 3+ | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Paul George: 2+ threes · Paul George: 2+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 84 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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