Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA 3rd Quarter Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 3rd quarter of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State wins the 3rd quarter · Golden State | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 29,318 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins the 3rd quarter · New Orleans | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 10,576 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,201 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 3rd quarter · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 3rd quarter · Oklahoma City | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Houston wins the 3rd quarter · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State wins the 3rd quarter · Golden State | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins the 3rd quarter · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 3rd quarter · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins the 3rd quarter · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn wins the 3rd quarter · Brooklyn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins the 3rd quarter · Milwaukee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L wins the 3rd quarter · Los Angeles L | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 3rd quarter · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver wins the 3rd quarter · Denver | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| San Antonio wins the 3rd quarter · San Antonio | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins the 3rd quarter · Chicago | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins the 3rd quarter · Toronto | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins the 3rd quarter · Boston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| New York wins the 3rd quarter · New York | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Cleveland wins the 3rd quarter · Cleveland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins the 3rd quarter · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins the 3rd quarter · Indiana | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 3rd quarter · Portland | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 3rd quarter · Oklahoma City | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 3rd quarter tie · Tie | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 3rd quarter · Sacramento | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 3rd quarter · Orlando | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.