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NBA 3rd Quarter Spread on Kalshi
If New Orleans wins by more than 7.5 points in the 3rd quarter of the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Golden State wins by over 1.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 65,406 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Golden State wins by over 2.5 points | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 22,522 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 4.5 points · Golden State wins by over 4.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 14,213 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Golden State wins by over 6.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 7,050 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 14.5 points · Golden State wins by over 14.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,476 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 1.5 points | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 5,316 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 12.5 points · Golden State wins by over 12.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,947 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 8.5 points · Golden State wins by over 8.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 1,912 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Golden State wins by over 10.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,406 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 3.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,059 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 3Q by over 5.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 5.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 585 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 7.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 191 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 3Q by over 9.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 9.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 33 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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