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All-NBA 3rd Team on Kalshi
If Zion Williamson is selected to the All-Pro Basketball Third Team in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 55 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Cameron Boozer · Cameron Boozer | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 4,708 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Alperen Sengun · Alperen Sengun | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,877 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Cooper Flagg · Cooper Flagg | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,524 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Jalen Johnson · Jalen Johnson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,288 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Anthony Davis · Anthony Davis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,264 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Cade Cunningham · Cade Cunningham | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,146 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: LaMelo Ball · LaMelo Ball | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,110 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Franz Wagner · Franz Wagner | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 864 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Devin Booker · Devin Booker | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 828 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Deni Avdija · Deni Avdija | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 728 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Amen Thompson · Amen Thompson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 516 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: AJ Dybantsa · AJ Dybantsa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 297 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Bam Adebayo · Bam Adebayo | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 176 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Paolo Banchero · Paolo Banchero | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 172 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Tyler Herro · Tyler Herro | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 172 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Chet Holmgren · Chet Holmgren | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 172 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Trae Young · Trae Young | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 164 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Giannis Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 146 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Domantas Sabonis · Domantas Sabonis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 146 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Anthony Edwards · Anthony Edwards | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 108 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Zion Williamson · Zion Williamson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Victor Wembanyama · Victor Wembanyama | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Trey Murphy III · Trey Murphy III | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Nikola Jokić · Nikola Jokić | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Luka Dončić · Luka Dončić | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Kon Knueppel · Kon Knueppel | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Jalen Williams · Jalen Williams | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Ja Morant · Ja Morant | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jaren Jackson Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Darryn Peterson · Darryn Peterson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: De'Aaron Fox · De'Aaron Fox | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Desmond Bane · Desmond Bane | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Caleb Wilson · Caleb Wilson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Scottie Barnes · Scottie Barnes | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 60 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Austin Reaves · Austin Reaves | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Tyrese Maxey · Tyrese Maxey | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Tyrese Haliburton · Tyrese Haliburton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Stephen Curry · Stephen Curry | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| All-Pro Basketball Third Team Selection: Pascal Siakam · Pascal Siakam | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 55 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.