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NBA 4th Quarter Total on Kalshi
If over 67.5 total points are scored in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th Quarter: Over 53.5 points scored · Over 53.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,985 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 55.5 points scored · Over 55.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,104 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 65.5 points scored · Over 65.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 870 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 61.5 points scored · Over 61.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 836 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 57.5 points scored · Over 57.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 439 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 63.5 points scored · Over 63.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 295 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 49.5 points scored · Over 49.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 67 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 59.5 points scored · Over 59.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 59 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 45.5 points scored · Over 45.5 points | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 33 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 47.5 points scored · Over 47.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 29 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 43.5 points scored · Over 43.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 11 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 67.5 points scored · Over 67.5 points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 4th Quarter: Over 51.5 points scored · Over 51.5 points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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