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NBA Cup Group Winner on Kalshi
If San Antonio wins West Group C in the Pro Basketball Cup in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group B Winner: Oklahoma City · Oklahoma City | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 8,076 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group A Winner: Houston · Houston | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 6,604 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group C Winner: Golden State · Golden State | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 5,944 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group C Winner: Boston · Boston | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 3,199 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group B Winner: Minnesota · Minnesota | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,980 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group A Winner: Dallas · Dallas | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,952 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group B Winner: Memphis · Memphis | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,942 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group B Winner: Philadelphia · Philadelphia | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 2,558 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group A Winner: Detroit · Detroit | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,876 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group A Winner: Denver · Denver | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,622 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group C Winner: Washington · Washington | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,182 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group C Winner: San Antonio · San Antonio | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 852 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group C Winner: Los Angeles L · Los Angeles L | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 846 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group C Winner: Portland · Portland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 656 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group B Winner: Cleveland · Cleveland | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 503 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group B Winner: New Orleans · New Orleans | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 330 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group A Winner: Utah · Utah | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 221 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group B Winner: New York · New York | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 186 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group C Winner: Atlanta · Atlanta | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 170 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group A Winner: Toronto · Toronto | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 116 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group C Winner: Charlotte · Charlotte | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 62 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group C Winner: Chicago · Chicago | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 56 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group B Winner: Indiana · Indiana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 50 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group B Winner: Los Angeles C · Los Angeles C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group B Winner: Miami · Miami | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 10 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group A Winner: Orlando · Orlando | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 5 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group A Winner: Phoenix · Phoenix | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup West Group C Winner: Sacramento · Sacramento | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group A Winner: Milwaukee · Milwaukee | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Cup East Group A Winner: Brooklyn · Brooklyn | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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