Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Pro Basketball Draft Pick on Kalshi
If Tyran Stokes is selected as the 1st overall pick in the 2027 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
27% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tyran Stokes be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Tyran Stokes | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 4,485 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Smith Jr. be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Jordan Smith Jr. | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,739 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Holt be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Caleb Holt | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,133 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cameron Williams be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Cameron Williams | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,042 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Colben Landrew be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Colben Landrew | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 845 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruce Branch III be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Bruce Branch III | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 377 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Haugh be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Thomas Haugh | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 300 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Braylon Mullins be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Braylon Mullins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 228 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baba Oladotun be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Baba Oladotun | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 193 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Ngongba II be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Patrick Ngongba II | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 110 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon McCoy be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Brandon McCoy | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 81 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hugo Yimga-Moukouri be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Hugo Yimga-Moukouri | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 54 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Motiejus Krivas be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Motiejus Krivas | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dylan Mingo be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Dylan Mingo | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amari Allen be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft? · Amari Allen | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.