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NBA Player Points Escalator on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays per points recorded by Dejounte Murray in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026. Each 2 points scored increases the payout by the following schedule: 0–1 points, $0.0000; 2–3, $0.0000; 4–5, $0.0005; 6–7, $0.0017; 8–9, $0.0040; 10–11, $0.0080; 12–13, $0.0138; 14–15, $0.0219; 16–17, $0.0327; 18–19, $0.0466; 20–21, $0.0640; 22–23, $0.0851; 24–25, $0.1105; 26–27, $0.1406; 28–29, $0.1756; 30–31, $0.2160; 32–33, $0.2621; 34–35, $0.3144; 36–37, $0.3732; 38–39, $0.4389; 40–41, $0.5120; 42–43, $0.5927; 44–45, $0.6814; 46–47, $0.7786; 48–49, $0.8847; and 50 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Y

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)0.7¢$3.0812.7%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Stephen Curry player points escalator · Stephen Curry20¢20%1.1¢—41%2,648Nov 12, 03:00 UTC
Brandin Podziemski player points escalator · Brandin Podziemski12¢12%0.7¢—23%1,279Nov 12, 03:00 UTC
Dejounte Murray player points escalator · Dejounte Murray7¢7%0.4¢—13%605Nov 12, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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