What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Europe Inaugural Season Being Announced on Kalshi

If the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces a firm decision to establish a new NBA-operated or jointly operated men's professional basketball league based in Europe, identifying the league's confirmed inaugural season after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, the Governing League, ABC News, CNN, The New York Times, CBS.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
NBA Europe's inaugural season announced before Jul 1, 2027 · Before Jul 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	6,350	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
NBA Europe's inaugural season announced before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	3,964	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
NBA Europe's inaugural season announced before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	89%	3,747	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
NBA Europe's inaugural season announced before Oct 1, 2027 · Before Oct 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	2,932	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
NBA Europe's inaugural season announced before Apr 1, 2027 · Before Apr 1, 2027	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	1,177	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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