What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 34¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 36% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 34%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Franchise Cost on Kalshi

If a qualifying sale of the Las Vegas NBA expansion franchise is publicly announced after Issuance and within the period ending on December 31, 2026 at a Headline Transaction Value above $9 billion, the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League, The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, Financial Times, ESPN, Sportico, The Athletic, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

34%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

68% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
34¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.31	35.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $12 billion · Above $12 billion	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	2,700	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $15 billion · Above $15 billion	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	2,428	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $13 billion · Above $13 billion	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	2,214	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $8 billion · Above $8 billion	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	1,401	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $10 billion · Above $10 billion	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	1,213	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $11 billion · Above $11 billion	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	1,000	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Las Vegas Pro Basketball expansion franchise price above $9 billion · Above $9 billion	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	91%	1	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.