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NBA H2H Player Points Bracketed on Kalshi
If Jaylen Brown records between 5 and 9 more points than Jayson Tatum in the Boston vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
22% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum scores 1-4 more points than Jaylen Brown · Jayson Tatum by 1-4 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 135 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown scores at least 10 more points than Jayson Tatum · Jaylen Brown by 10+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 21 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown scores 5-9 more points than Jayson Tatum · Jaylen Brown by 5-9 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown scores 1-4 more points than Jayson Tatum · Jaylen Brown by 1-4 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum scores the same number of points as Jaylen Brown · Tied | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum scores 5-9 more points than Jaylen Brown · Jayson Tatum by 5-9 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Jayson Tatum scores at least 10 more points than Jaylen Brown · Jayson Tatum by 10+ | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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