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NBA Player of the Month on Kalshi
If Zion Williamson wins the Western Conference Player of the Month award in October/November of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 120 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Amen Thompson · Amen Thompson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,087 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Anthony Edwards · Anthony Edwards | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 954 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: VJ Edgecombe · VJ Edgecombe | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 702 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Bennedict Mathurin · Bennedict Mathurin | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 649 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Dillon Brooks · Dillon Brooks | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 572 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Cameron Boozer · Cameron Boozer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 340 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Jayson Tatum · Jayson Tatum | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 339 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Victor Wembanyama · Victor Wembanyama | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 310 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Ayo Dosunmu · Ayo Dosunmu | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 275 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Payton Pritchard · Payton Pritchard | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 271 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Trae Young · Trae Young | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 269 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Deni Avdija · Deni Avdija | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 269 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Devin Booker · Devin Booker | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 269 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Tyrese Haliburton · Tyrese Haliburton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 268 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Pascal Siakam · Pascal Siakam | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 267 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Scottie Barnes · Scottie Barnes | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 266 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Ryan Rollins · Ryan Rollins | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 262 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Aaron Gordon · Aaron Gordon | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 253 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Paul George · Paul George | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 251 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Alperen Sengun · Alperen Sengun | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 211 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Austin Reaves · Austin Reaves | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 145 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Tyrese Maxey · Tyrese Maxey | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 136 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Brandin Podziemski · Brandin Podziemski | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 135 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Tre Jones · Tre Jones | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 121 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Tyler Herro · Tyler Herro | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 17 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Anthony Black · Anthony Black | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Luka Dončić · Luka Dončić | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Zion Williamson · Zion Williamson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Zach LaVine · Zach LaVine | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Trey Murphy III · Trey Murphy III | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Ty Jerome · Ty Jerome | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Shaedon Sharpe · Shaedon Sharpe | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Stephen Curry · Stephen Curry | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Stephon Castle · Stephon Castle | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Saddiq Bey · Saddiq Bey | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Santi Aldama · Santi Aldama | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: P.J. Washington · P.J. Washington | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Naji Marshall · Naji Marshall | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Player of the Month in October/November: Nikola Jokić · Nikola Jokić | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 120 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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