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NBA Retirement on Kalshi
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, The Athletic, AP, ESPN, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, ABC, Reuters.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 8,355 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,674 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 833 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 796 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 629 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 561 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 486 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 385 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 353 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 301 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 186 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 160 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 135 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2030-31 NBA season? · Before the 2030-31 season | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 84 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2030-31 NBA season? · Before the 2030-31 season | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 47 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 39 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 26 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 22 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 17 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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