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NBA Rookie of the Month on Kalshi
If Yaxel Lendeborg wins the Western Conference Rookie of the Month award in October/November of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Quadir Copeland · Quadir Copeland | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 998 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Thomas Sorber · Thomas Sorber | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 962 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Graham Ike · Graham Ike | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 662 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Ja'Kobi Gillespie · Ja'Kobi Gillespie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 661 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Yaxel Lendeborg · Yaxel Lendeborg | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 601 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Aday Mara · Aday Mara | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 508 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Bennett Stirtz · Bennett Stirtz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 477 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Morez Johnson Jr. · Morez Johnson Jr. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 464 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Sergio De Larrea · Sergio De Larrea | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 449 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Otega Oweh · Otega Oweh | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 439 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Trevon Brazile · Trevon Brazile | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 433 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Darryn Peterson · Darryn Peterson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 432 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Baba Miller · Baba Miller | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 429 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Nick Martinelli · Nick Martinelli | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 425 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Maliq Brown · Maliq Brown | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 424 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Emanuel Sharp · Emanuel Sharp | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 421 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Alex Karaban · Alex Karaban | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 418 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Arthur Kaluma · Arthur Kaluma | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 414 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Tarik Biberovic · Tarik Biberovic | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 400 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Isaiah Evans · Isaiah Evans | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 392 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Keaton Wagler · Keaton Wagler | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 369 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Bruce Thornton · Bruce Thornton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 355 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Koa Peat · Koa Peat | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 312 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Cameron Boozer · Cameron Boozer | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 297 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Darius Acuff Jr. · Darius Acuff Jr. | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 290 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Tarris Reed Jr. · Tarris Reed Jr. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 288 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Cameron Carr · Cameron Carr | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 264 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Karim Lopez · Karim Lopez | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 142 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: AJ Dybantsa · AJ Dybantsa | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 142 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Brayden Burries · Brayden Burries | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 140 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Jayden Quaintance · Jayden Quaintance | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 139 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Allen Graves · Allen Graves | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 138 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Western Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Jaron Pierre Jr. · Jaron Pierre Jr. | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 137 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Meleek Thomas · Meleek Thomas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Caleb Wilson · Caleb Wilson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Zuby Ejiofor · Zuby Ejiofor | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Ugonna Onyenso · Ugonna Onyenso | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Tyler Nickel · Tyler Nickel | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Tre Donaldson · Tre Donaldson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in October/November: Tyler Bilodeau · Tyler Bilodeau | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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