Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Spread on Kalshi
If Golden State wins by more than 38.5 points in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 199 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State wins by over 11.5 points · Golden State wins by over 11.5 points | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 651,476 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 28.5 points · Golden State wins by over 28.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 117,959 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 9.5 points · Golden State wins by over 9.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 108,045 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 20.5 points · Golden State wins by over 20.5 points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 98,905 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 32.5 points · Golden State wins by over 32.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 59,973 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 18.5 points · Golden State wins by over 18.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 57,358 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 30.5 points · Golden State wins by over 30.5 points | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 56,320 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 26.5 points · Golden State wins by over 26.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 50,639 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 24.5 points · Golden State wins by over 24.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 44,930 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 22.5 points · Golden State wins by over 22.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 43,712 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 10.5 points · Golden State wins by over 10.5 points | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 42,290 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 4.5 points · Golden State wins by over 4.5 points | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 36,363 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 36.5 points · Golden State wins by over 36.5 points | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 33,892 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 14.5 points · Golden State wins by over 14.5 points | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 28,428 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 2.5 points · Golden State wins by over 2.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,298 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 13.5 points · Golden State wins by over 13.5 points | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 28,063 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 34.5 points · Golden State wins by over 34.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 25,491 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 12.5 points · Golden State wins by over 12.5 points | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 23,278 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 7.5 points · Golden State wins by over 7.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,959 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 15.5 points · Golden State wins by over 15.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 21,541 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 16.5 points · Golden State wins by over 16.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 19,484 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 6.5 points · Golden State wins by over 6.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,338 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 8.5 points · Golden State wins by over 8.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 16,082 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 38.5 points · Golden State wins by over 38.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 13,897 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 1.5 points · Golden State wins by over 1.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,753 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 7.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 7.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,668 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by over 5.5 points · Golden State wins by over 5.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,255 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 9.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 9.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,250 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 13.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 13.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,868 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 5.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 5.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,006 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4,595 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 1.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 1.5 points | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,355 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 11.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 11.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,810 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by over 3.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 3.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,605 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by over 10.5 points · Miami wins by over 10.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,598 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 1.5 points · Boston wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,523 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 791 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by over 2.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 760 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| New York wins by over 9.5 points · New York wins by over 9.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 312 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 5.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 5.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 279 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 199 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.