Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Steals on Kalshi
If VJ Edgecombe records 3+ steals in the Boston vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Anthony Melton: 2+ steals · De'Anthony Melton: 2+ | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 655 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 2+ steals · Dejounte Murray: 2+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 599 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 1+ steals · Brandin Podziemski: 1+ | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 478 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 1+ steals · Yaxel Lendeborg: 1+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 279 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 2+ steals · Stephen Curry: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 63 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 3+ steals · Stephen Curry: 3+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 27 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 1+ steals · Stephen Curry: 1+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 26 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 1+ steals · De'Anthony Melton: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 16 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 3+ steals · Dejounte Murray: 3+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 6 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 2+ steals · Brandin Podziemski: 2+ | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3+ steals · Brandin Podziemski: 3+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 1+ steals · Dejounte Murray: 1+ | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 2+ steals · Yaxel Lendeborg: 2+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3+ steals · VJ Edgecombe: 3+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 2+ steals · VJ Edgecombe: 2+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| VJ Edgecombe: 1+ steals · VJ Edgecombe: 1+ | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3+ steals · Tyrese Maxey: 3+ | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 2+ steals · Tyrese Maxey: 2+ | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tyrese Maxey: 1+ steals · Tyrese Maxey: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ steals · Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 3+ steals · De'Anthony Melton: 3+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.