Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Australia NBL Champion on Kalshi
If Tasmania JackJumpers wins the Australia NBL championship in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, NBL, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia NBL Champion: Perth Wildcats · Perth Wildcats | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Tasmania JackJumpers · Tasmania JackJumpers | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Sydney Kings · Sydney Kings | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: SE Melbourne Phoenix · SE Melbourne Phoenix | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: New Zealand Breakers · New Zealand Breakers | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Melbourne United · Melbourne United | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Illawarra Hawks · Illawarra Hawks | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Cairns Taipans · Cairns Taipans | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Brisbane Bullets · Brisbane Bullets | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Australia NBL Champion: Adelaide 36ers · Adelaide 36ers | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | May 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.