What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 29¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.49.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 30% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 29%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will women get a bigger share of House settlement back pay? on Kalshi

If a court order entered in House v. NCAA (In re College Athlete NIL Litigation) before Jan 1, 2030 allocates a greater share of the damages settlement funds in respect of participation on women's teams than the plan of allocation approved on June 6, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bloomberg, National Collegiate Athletic Association, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, Associated Press, Supreme Court, Kurtzman Carson Consultants, LLC, doing business as Verita Global (including the court-approved settlement website it administers), The Wall Street Journal, CBS Sports, Winston & Strawn LLP, ESPN, United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, Reuters, Front Office Sports, Sportico, United States District Court for the Northern District of California, The New York Times (including The Athletic), the Supreme Court of the United States, Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP.

Market says (typical open contract)

29%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

58% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.49	30.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will women get a bigger share of NCAA settlement back pay before Jan 1, 2030? · Before Jan 1, 2030	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	3,824	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.