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College Football 1st Half Spread on Kalshi
If North Dakota St. wins by more than 7.5 points in the 1st half of the North Dakota St. vs Hawai'i college football game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 1407 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon wins 1H by over 6.5 points · Oregon wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 186 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Ohio wins 1H by over 17.5 points · Ohio wins by over 17.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 123 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 1H by over 6.5 points · UCLA wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 115 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins 1H by over 14.5 points · Bowling Green wins by over 14.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 106 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 1H by over 23.5 points · UCLA wins by over 23.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 101 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 1H by over 20.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 20.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 101 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Ohio wins 1H by over 2.5 points · Ohio wins by over 2.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 53 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas St. wins 1H by over 5.5 points · Texas St. wins by over 5.5 points | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 41 | Nov 16, 21:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins 1H by over 6.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 6.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 38 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins 1H by over 7.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 7.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 38 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins 1H by over 9.5 points · Georgia wins by over 9.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 37 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Toledo wins 1H by over 17.5 points · Toledo wins by over 17.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 32 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Memphis wins 1H by over 20.5 points · Memphis wins by over 20.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 26 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| SMU wins 1H by over 10.5 points · SMU wins by over 10.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 25 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Wisconsin wins 1H by over 23.5 points · Wisconsin wins by over 23.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 25 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Nebraska wins 1H by over 9.5 points · Nebraska wins by over 9.5 points | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 17 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins 1H by over 3.5 points · Bowling Green wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 9 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins 1H by over 2.5 points · Washington wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 6 | Nov 16, 21:15 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins 1H by over 20.5 points · Bowling Green wins by over 20.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins 1H by over 4.5 points · Western Michigan wins by over 4.5 points | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 4 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Boise St. wins 1H by over 7.5 points · Boise St. wins by over 7.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 1H by over 20.5 points · UCLA wins by over 20.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins 1H by over 7.5 points · Alabama wins by over 7.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:45 UTC |
| Alabama wins 1H by over 2.5 points · Alabama wins by over 2.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:45 UTC |
| Miami (FL) wins 1H by over 7.5 points · Miami (FL) wins by over 7.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 7.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 6.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 4.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 4.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 3.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 2.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 23.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 23.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 20.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 20.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 17.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 17.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 14.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 14.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 13.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 13.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 10.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 10.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| North Dakota St. wins 1H by over 9.5 points · North Dakota St. wins by over 9.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins 1H by over 7.5 points · Hawai'i wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins 1H by over 6.5 points · Hawai'i wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins 1H by over 4.5 points · Hawai'i wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 17, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 1407 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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