What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 78¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 80% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 78%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Players to Declare for the NFL Draft on Kalshi

If Jadan Baugh publicly and unequivocally announces that they are entering the 2027 Regular NFL Draft after Issuance and before February 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, the Governing League, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, Bleacher Report, The New York Times, The Athletic.

Market says (typical open contract)

78%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

43% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
78¢ (now)	1.2¢	$0.77	79.2%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Drew Mestemaker to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Drew Mestemaker to declare for the Pro Football Draft	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	1,944	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
CJ Carr to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · CJ Carr to declare for the Pro Football Draft	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	1,043	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
Arch Manning to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Arch Manning to declare for the Pro Football Draft	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	970	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
Dante Moore to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Dante Moore to declare for the Pro Football Draft	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	309	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
Ryan Coleman-Williams to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Ryan Coleman-Williams to declare for the Pro Football Draft	85¢	85%	0.9¢	—	30%	61	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
Jadan Baugh to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Jadan Baugh to declare for the Pro Football Draft	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	39	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC
Darian Mensah to declare for the 2027 Pro Football Draft · Darian Mensah to declare for the Pro Football Draft	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	11	Feb 02, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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