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College Football Game on Kalshi
If Tennessee wins the LSU vs Tennessee college football game originally scheduled for Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 516 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas wins · Texas | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 268,394 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| USC wins · USC | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 110,851 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| LSU wins · LSU | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 50,895 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins · Western Michigan | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 43,395 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame wins · Notre Dame | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 37,531 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Boston College wins · Boston College | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 36,504 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Northwestern wins · Northwestern | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 35,414 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins · Indiana | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 31,014 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 26,773 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins · Tennessee | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 24,573 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins · Illinois | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 23,343 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins · Texas Tech | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 17,553 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins · UCLA | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 17,523 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 17,465 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Wofford wins · Wofford | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,083 | Nov 23, 17:00 UTC |
| Sacramento St. wins · Sacramento St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 14,474 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| SMU wins · SMU | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 14,058 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Samford wins · Samford | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,968 | Nov 23, 20:30 UTC |
| Chattanooga wins · Chattanooga | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,728 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Missouri wins · Missouri | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 13,141 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ohio wins · Ohio | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 12,484 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Akron wins · Akron | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 12,009 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins · Georgia | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 11,798 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Wake Forest wins · Wake Forest | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 11,497 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Rutgers wins · Rutgers | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 10,974 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Auburn wins · Auburn | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 10,551 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins · Ole Miss | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 9,733 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins · Alabama | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,561 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins · Alabama | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 8,475 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. wins · Ohio St. | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 8,083 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma St. wins · Oklahoma St. | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 7,349 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| South Carolina wins · South Carolina | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 6,972 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Kentucky wins · Kentucky | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 6,679 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins · Ole Miss | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,661 | Nov 23, 17:00 UTC |
| Auburn wins · Auburn | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,588 | Nov 23, 20:30 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins · Vanderbilt | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,585 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma wins · Oklahoma | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,436 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Boise St. wins · Boise St. | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 5,985 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 5,965 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Arizona wins · Arizona | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 5,293 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 516 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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