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College Football Sun Belt Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Louisiana Tech qualifies for the 2026 College Football Sun Belt Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Louisiana Tech qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Louisiana Tech | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 6,776 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · James Madison | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 4,149 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Appalachian St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Appalachian St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,758 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisiana qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Louisiana | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,644 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia Southern qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Georgia Southern | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,406 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Old Dominion | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 505 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Troy qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Troy | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 494 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Arkansas St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 478 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Southern Miss qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Southern Miss | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 343 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Georgia St. | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 262 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marshall qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Marshall | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 210 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Alabama qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · South Alabama | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 199 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisiana-Monroe qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Louisiana-Monroe | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 171 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coastal Carolina qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game? · Coastal Carolina | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 9 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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