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College Football Playoff Seed on Kalshi
If UCLA is selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 624 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Notre Dame be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Notre Dame | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 29,285 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Miami (FL) | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 19,612 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Utah | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 11,626 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Georgia | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 9,259 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Ohio St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,823 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,657 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LSU be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · LSU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,562 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Alabama | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 6,856 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Ole Miss | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,290 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · BYU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,057 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Indiana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,975 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Oregon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,864 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas Tech | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,456 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Utah | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,414 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison be selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · James Madison | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,389 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Penn St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,353 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Notre Dame | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,997 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Kentucky | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,864 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Florida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,811 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Tennessee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,735 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · USC | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,407 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,371 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,332 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas A&M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,307 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be selected as the #10 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Alabama | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 941 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Louisville | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 808 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Houston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 807 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 773 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Miami (FL) | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 725 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Alabama | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 700 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame be selected as the #3 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Notre Dame | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 682 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 657 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Auburn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 618 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Georgia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 569 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Florida St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 562 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa be selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Iowa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 548 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be selected as the #4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 537 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. be selected as the #2 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Ohio St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 533 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU be selected as the #10 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · BYU | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 515 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina be selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · South Carolina | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 511 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 624 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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