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College Football CFP Poll on Kalshi
If UCLA is ranked top 4 on the Nov 24 College Football Playoff rankings in the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: College Football Playoff Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 623 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas to be a top 4 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Texas | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,333 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Maryland to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Maryland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,054 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Oregon to be a top 4 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Oregon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,656 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Arizona to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Arizona | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,631 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Florida | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,610 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Duke to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Duke | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 800 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Cincinnati | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 679 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida St. to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Florida St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 676 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| LSU to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · LSU | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 642 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Virginia to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Virginia | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 642 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| LSU to be a top 4 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · LSU | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 603 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Florida St. to be a top 4 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Florida St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 603 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Northwestern to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Northwestern | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 543 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Oregon to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Oregon | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 536 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Georgia | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 468 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Kansas to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Kansas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 465 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Houston to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Houston | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 447 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Indiana to be a top 12 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Indiana | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 405 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Nebraska to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Nebraska | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 390 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Indiana to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Indiana | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 384 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| BYU to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · BYU | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 361 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss to be a top 4 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Ole Miss | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 321 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Tulane to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Tulane | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 303 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Texas Tech | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 303 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Ohio St. | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 292 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Nebraska to be a top 12 ranked team on the Dec 1 CFP rankings · Nebraska | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 278 | Dec 08, 17:00 UTC |
| Alabama to be a top 12 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 266 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| South Carolina to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · South Carolina | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 249 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Utah to be a top 4 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Utah | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 245 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| San Diego St. to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · San Diego St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 241 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Auburn to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Auburn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 236 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Boise St. to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Boise St. | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 231 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Baylor to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Baylor | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 227 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Washington to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Washington | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 212 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Wake Forest to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Wake Forest | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 210 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Kentucky to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Kentucky | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 210 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| USC to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · USC | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 208 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Tennessee to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 10 CFP rankings · Tennessee | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 208 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Georgia to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Georgia | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 200 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame to be a top 25 ranked team on the Nov 17 CFP rankings · Notre Dame | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 200 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 623 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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