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College Football Teams to go Undefeated at Home on Kalshi
If the Memphis college football team goes undefeated in home games (excluding neutral site games) in the 2026 college football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Boise St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Boise St. | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 7,573 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Texas go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · North Texas | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 2,313 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Texas Tech | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,609 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Notre Dame | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 696 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Miami (FL) | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 407 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Oklahoma St. | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 364 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · SMU | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 350 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Houston | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 147 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Utah | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 96 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · BYU | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 38 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Liberty go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Liberty | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Mexico go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · New Mexico | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Wisconsin | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · UCLA | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season? · Arizona | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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