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Men's College Basketball 1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If USC wins the 1st half of the USC vs California men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 150 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i wins the 1st half · Hawai'i | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,341 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half · Portland | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,450 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Detroit Mercy wins the 1st half · Detroit Mercy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 499 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 187 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Louisiana-Monroe wins the 1st half · Louisiana-Monroe | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 156 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Southern University wins the 1st half · Southern University | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 156 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Virginia wins the 1st half · Virginia | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 118 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Delaware St. wins the 1st half · Delaware St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 93 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Duke wins the 1st half · Duke | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 70 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 1st half · Memphis | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 33 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Xavier wins the 1st half · Xavier | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 22 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| TCU wins the 1st half · TCU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 18 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Arizona wins the 1st half · Arizona | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 18 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Iowa St. wins the 1st half · Iowa St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Georgetown wins the 1st half · Georgetown | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 12 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 1st half · Kentucky | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 11 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 1st half · Vanderbilt | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 11 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Weber St. wins the 1st half · Weber St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Presbyterian wins the 1st half · Presbyterian | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Fairfield wins the 1st half · Fairfield | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UCLA wins the 1st half · UCLA | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Nebraska wins the 1st half · Nebraska | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Arkansas wins the 1st half · Arkansas | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Houston wins the 1st half · Houston | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame wins the 1st half · Notre Dame | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| St. John's wins the 1st half · St. John's | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| BYU wins the 1st half · BYU | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins the 1st half · Ole Miss | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| SMU wins the 1st half · SMU | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Maryland-Eastern Shore wins the 1st half · Maryland-Eastern Shore | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| NJIT wins the 1st half · NJIT | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 1st half · Texas Tech | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Wisconsin wins the 1st half · Wisconsin | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 1st half · Illinois | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| USC wins the 1st half · USC | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
| California wins the 1st half · California | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 150 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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