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Men's College Basketball 2nd Half Spread on Kalshi
If Kentucky wins the 2nd half (including overtime) by more than 8.5 points in the Kansas vs Kentucky men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 52 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half by over 8.5 points · Kentucky wins by over 8.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half by over 4.5 points · Kentucky wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half by over 1.5 points · Kentucky wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half by over 16.5 points · Kentucky wins by over 16.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 2nd half by over 12.5 points · Kentucky wins by over 12.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 7.5 points · Kansas wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 4.5 points · Kansas wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 25.5 points · Kansas wins by over 25.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 21.5 points · Kansas wins by over 21.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 1.5 points · Kansas wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 17.5 points · Kansas wins by over 17.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 13.5 points · Kansas wins by over 13.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas wins the 2nd half by over 10.5 points · Kansas wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 7.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 4.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 19.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 19.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 1.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 15.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 15.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 2nd half by over 11.5 points · Texas Tech wins by over 11.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 8.5 points · Illinois wins by over 8.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 5.5 points · Illinois wins by over 5.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 2.5 points · Illinois wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 23.5 points · Illinois wins by over 23.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 19.5 points · Illinois wins by over 19.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 15.5 points · Illinois wins by over 15.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 2nd half by over 11.5 points · Illinois wins by over 11.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 7.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 7.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 4.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 31.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 31.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 27.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 27.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 23.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 23.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 19.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 19.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 1.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 1.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 16.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 16.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 13.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 13.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins the 2nd half by over 10.5 points · Vanderbilt wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 2nd half by over 6.5 points · Memphis wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 2nd half by over 2.5 points · Memphis wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 2nd half by over 10.5 points · Memphis wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins the 2nd half by over 5.5 points · Michigan St. wins by over 5.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 52 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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